Welcome to a series about my sports betting experiences, Gambling Diary of a Little Man. This series is catered toward amateur bettors who are often referred to as fish. Hopefully, sports gambling enthusiasts who use DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, or any other service can use this information to make net positive decisions. Join me on my quest to see if I can make a return on a beginner’s $777 bankroll. Should I deposit more money so I can enjoy real payouts? What will happen as I remain committed to my philosophy of never betting on lines that are higher than -110 (e.g. -120, -135)? The series starts with the prologue.
Please note that I don’t count any of my daily fantasy sports (DFS) winnings and losings in my bankroll calculations. I’ve played DFS for years and treat it as lottery. I used to play higher paying contests but it’s just not worth it anymore. I can rank in the top 10 percentile yet only double my money. DraftKings and FanDuel take too much rake for me to invest much money into it.
A few years ago, I wrote a series of DFS newbie guides that you can use to help you create better lineups. I don’t play every night but when I do I usually only make one to three lineups.
Gambling Diary of a Little Man: MLB DFS GPP 9th/10,376
September 10, 2022: Quarter Jukebox
daltonbrodygavin had the winning lineup with 185.25. My lineup construction consisted of the following game theory:
- Start with selecting my favorite two pitchers.
- Find an affordable lineup stack that includes a catcher in a high scoring contest.
- Fill out the remaining four hitter slots with affordable players in great situations or ownership pivots (e.g. if Aaron Judge faces Max Scherzer)
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Julio Urias and Seattle Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby continued their stretch of quality outings with solid games against playoff opponents. Apparently, the opponent quality scared some people away from using them. I’ll use pitchers against great offenses because great pitching beats great hitting. Those types of risks can pay off.
The Toronto Blue Jays were facing Texas Rangers starter Kohei Arihara. Arihara entered this game with a 5.29 ERA but now it’s 9.45 since he allowed 11 earned runs in three innings. Bo Bichette has been on a tear and there were a bunch of cheap hitters who had a good matchup. Bichette ($5,700), Danny Jansen ($3,800), Cavan Biggio ($2,700) and Santiago Espinal ($2,400) combined for 80 points. Espinal came at 3.0-percent ownership while Jansen and Biggio were below 8.0-percent.
I took a few players from the Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies contest because they were so under-priced. This didn’t work out as well as I had hoped since the final was 4-1. Madison Bumgarner (4.88 ERA) and Jose Urena (5.81 ERA) appeared like a fireworks display waiting to happen; however, baseball often plays out differently than what the stats suggest. Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk did get me a 15 at $4,100 salary.
The last player selected was Seattle Mariners third baseman Eugenio Suarez. While he was facing Atlanta Braves starter Max Fried, Suarez has a 160wRC+ against lefties. Suarez got me a 17 at 1.2-percent ownership.
Coming Up Next…
Normally, I don’t talk about DFS on my gambling diary. I’ll mention it if I have a good lineup. My diary is to track my first 50 to 100 regular MLB/NFL/NBA/college bets. For Week 1, I’ve got about three or four bets along with a few DFS lineups. I’m MUCH better at MLB DFS than NFL DFS so I’m trying something different with my lineups this season.
Enjoy Week 1 everyone!
Gambling Diary Results to Date
- Starting Bankroll (August 18, 2022): $777.00
- MLB Record: 12-10.5-4.5
- Money Risked: $407.56
- Money Won: $407.75
- Free Bet Wins: $14.28
- Recent Profit/Loss: +$14.47
- NCAA Football Record: 1-1
- Money Risked: $26.38
- Money Won: $19.09
- Free Bets Wins: $0.00
- Recent Profit/Loss: -$7.29
- NFL Record: 0-1
- Money Risked: $10.00
- Money Won: $0.00
- Free Bets Wins: $0.00
- Recent Profit/Loss: -$10.00
- Promotional Funds: $4.00
- OVERALL RECENT PROFIT/LOSS: +$1.18
- Additional Deposits: $0
- Current Bankroll: $778.18 (two-percent wager = $15.56)